Cover into Strength, Not Panic.
As of Aug 26, 2025
Live snapshot for majors, miners & ETFs. This deck focuses on closing/exiting short exposure when reversal risk is high or PnL targets are met.
When to Cover (Playbook)
- Funding flips negative with price stabilizing ↯ short crowding risk.
- Spot ETF net inflow returns (1D & 5D) and basis re‑steepens.
- USD and real‑yields soften; risk breadth thrust fires.
- RSI/Momentum positive divergence after a cascade.
Cover Score Meter
Score your signals in the next tab to light this up.
Targets to Watch
- Majors: BTC, ETH, SOL
- Equities: COIN, MSTR, MARA, RIOT, CLSK
- ETFs: IBIT, FBTC, HODL, BITO, GBTC, WGMI, BITX
Evidence Checklist — EXIT
- Funding ≤ 0 and OI flat/down (short crowding)
- Spot ETF net flow positive on 1D and 5D
- Term structure re‑steepens (contango widens)
- USD / real yields falling
- RSI bull divergence, breadth thrust
- Big catalyst hit (sell the rumor → buy the news)
- Options skew stretched (puts rich → vol mean‑revert)
- Miner exchange deposits fall (less forced sell)
Score: 0 / 10
PnL Lock‑in Quick Calc
Exit Ladder Builder
Adaptive Trailing Stop (for shorts)
Rule: stop = max(stop, now + k*ATR%) with k = 1.5 (default). For shorts, stop trails upwards.
Close Bear Put / Spreads
- When cover score ≥ 7/10, take profits on verticals at ≥ 60–75% of max value.
- For calendars/diagonals: if vol crush begins and delta drops, harvest remaining theta.
- Keep a tail: roll a small debit to lower strikes if macro risk lingers.
Exit Timing Helper
Risk Controls on Exit
- Scale out; avoid closing 100% at the first bounce unless cover score is extreme.
- Use time‑based stops around catalysts (FOMC, ETF data releases, major listings).
- Protect realized gains: reduce gross short beta to neutral when signals flip.
Disclaimer
This presentation is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Verify data with your provider/broker before acting.