Short the Hype. Capture the Mean Reversion.
As of Aug 26, 2025
Spot prices snapshot + miners/ETFs to target. Use the tabs for thesis, structured trades and scenario testing.
Targets: Layered
- Core: BTC, ETH, SOL
- Exposed Equities: COIN, MSTR, MARA, RIOT, CLSK
- ETFs: IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, HODL, BITO, GBTC, miners WGMI, leverage BITX
Playbook
- Fade parabolic spikes and funding‑rate blow‑offs.
- Prefer puts & bear‑put spreads on ETFs/equities; borrow risk goes to zero.
- Use grids: stagger entries; partial profit at −10/−20/−30% moves.
Heads‑up
Crypto squeezes are violent. Keep risk per idea ≤ 1% NAV, respect hard stops, and consider options for convexity.
Macro & Flow
• ETF flow sensitivitySpot BTC ETFs concentrate marginal demand; weakening net inflows and outflow days tend to coincide with price tops. Cross‑check daily issuer flow tables and rolling 4‑week sums.
• Miner stressRising hash‑price compression and post‑halving revenue pressure force inventory sales, raising supply into rallies.
• Liquidity regimeUSD liquidity drawdowns and higher real yields historically weigh on speculative assets. Monitor DXY and 10y TIPS.
Microstructure
• Perp funding & OIExtended positive funding with rising open interest = fuel for squeeze then unwind. Fading late‑stage leverage is a classic short entry.
• Basis / term structureFlattening or flipping term structure often precedes down legs—especially after a multi‑week contango.
• Whale/influencer catalystsEvent‑driven pumps (listings, tweets, integrations) leave footprints; sell the news is your edge.
Evidence Checklist (tick before sizing up)
- Spot ETF net flow: negative on 1D and ≤0 on 5D/20D roll.
- Funding rate ≥ +20 bps/day on majors with rising OI.
- Miner revenue/TH trending down; exchange deposits up.
- USD uptrend intact; real yields not falling.
- Major narrative/catalyst priced in; sentiment euphoric.
Outright Shorts (where borrow/liquidity is robust)
- COIN — beta to BTC + fees/volumes. Prefer post‑spike fade; protect with stop above recent swing‑high.
- MSTR — effectively a levered BTC proxy; gap risk sizeable. Consider options instead of borrow.
- MARA / RIOT / CLSK — miners underperform spot in down legs due to operating leverage and dilution risk.
Options: Defined‑risk Bearish Structures
- Bear put spread on BITO / IBIT / FBTC / ARKB (long K1 put, short K2 put). Target 30–60 DTE.
- Bear call spread on COIN/MSTR into resistance; finance with put vertical.
- Put calendar ahead of expected flow downticks to capture implied vol term effects.
Levels & Triggers (editable)
Short PnL
Bear Put (Black–Scholes)
Risk Controls
- Cap single‑name risk at ≤1% of NAV; portfolio short‑beta ≤ −30% net.
- Always define invalidation and time stop. No averaging up losses.
- Prefer options during scheduled catalysts; avoid shorting illiquid alts.
- Systems discipline: checklist → size → execute → review.
Disclaimer
This presentation is for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Trading involves risk of loss. Verify all market data from your broker or data provider before acting.